On Coupons and Lost Sales

Who the hell has time to clip and save coupons?

While I was away this summer, my dear husband neglected to water most of my plants. As a result, most of them died.

The plants in question lined a high “plant shelf” in my dining room and the tops of kitchen cabinets. They looked kind of nice up there and helped deaden the echo of our high-ceilinged kitchen/dining area. Once they’d dried to dust, the only thing left up there were the empty flower pots and decorative baskets.

Although I absolutely hate fake plants, I realized that if I wanted permanent green up there, I’d have to go with decent quality silk replacements. As an experiment, I went to Michael’s, a “craft” store that sells these things, and picked out three large, realistic-looking replacements. They weren’t cheap: they cost $9.99 each. I brought them home, stuck their pointed bases into the dirt remaining in the flower pots, arranged their leaves, and put them into position.

I stepped back. One of them — the fake spider plant — actually looked pretty darn good. The ivy didn’t look bad. The other one…well, it needed some work.

But, in general, I considered the experiment a success. I figured I’d need about five more to complete the project on top of the cabinets.

Now, there is no Michael’s in Wickenburg. And there’s no place to get quality fake plants. So phase 2 would have to wait until I was back in the valley.

I got my chance on Monday, while waiting for the helicopter mechanic to do his magic on a 100-hour inspection in Scottsdale. I rented a car and, after a very pleasant lunch at Kierland Commons, hit the road, looking for a Michael’s.

I didn’t find one. But I did find a JoAnn. JoAnn is Michael’s competitor. Same stuff.

I do need to step back and insert some opinion here. Apparently there are quite a few women out there with nothing better to do with their time than put together scrapbooks and decorate their homes for the various seasons and holidays and spend money on crafty crap that they likely throw out within a few months anyway. (After all, a home can only stand so much clutter.) These places — Michael’s and JoAnn — are filled with these women, who wander the aisles with shopping baskets, looking for ideas on how to waste their time and money.

When I go into these places, I’m on a mission. Go in, get what I need, and get out.

Part of me wishes I had the time and money to waste — believe me, I wouldn’t be wasting it in a craft shop.

Anyway, I went into JoAnn and zeroed in on the fake plant aisle. I soon found what I was looking for, but the per plant price was $15.99, which I thought was really excessive. I picked out just two Boston Ferns (which would never survive in my desert home had they been real) and brought them to the checkout counter.

I waited behind a woman who was buying fabric and Halloween junk and being quizzed by the cashier about what she was going to do with it.

“I’m making a pillow for my mother,” the customer said.

“Oh, how nice,” the cashier responded. “Mothers always like that kind of thing.”

She’d obviously never met my mother.

The woman went away and I plopped my two Boston Ferns down on the counter. The following conversation began:

Cashier: “Did you find everything you need?”

Me: “Yep.”

Cashier: “Do you have any coupons?”

Me: “Nope.”

Cashier: “Are you on our mailing list to get coupons?”

Me: “Nope.”

My short, one-word answers were definitely unnerving her, but she went on.

Cashier: “Do you want — ”

Me: “Nope. I get enough junk in the mail.”

I could tell that my rudeness — and let’s face it, I was being pretty rude — had bothered the cashier. Her script was bugging me. But she decided to retaliate.

Cashier: “You know, if you had a coupon, you could save 40% on these.”

Me: “If I went to Michael’s, I could save 40% without a coupon.”

That shut her up. She rang up my fake plants.

Cashier: “That’ll be $34.54.”

I gave that some thought as she began putting the fake greenery into a bag. Her 40% challenge had put me into an interesting position. If I paid up without the discount, I’d be agreeing that their outrageous price was fine with me and that I didn’t mind being forced to pay full price when a piece of paper could have saved me 40%. I decided that I didn’t want to be in that position.

Me: “You’re right. That’s too much money. You can keep them. I’ll go to Michael’s.”

And I walked out the door.

Yeah, I know. I can be a real bitch sometimes.

Worst Western

Or why I won’t stay in a Best Western again.

This past week, I spent three nights in a Best Western motel in Page, AZ.

There are two Best Westerns there. I stayed in the one that had no hot water for more than 24 hours during my stay.

I learned about the hot water problem when I returned to the hotel at about 8 PM on Friday night. At the time, I was told that it was unlikely that the hot water would be working before Monday. I was due to check out on Sunday.

I was paying for not just my room, but the rooms for three other guests. Since they were my guests, I felt it necessary to take action when the hot water system in the hotel broke down. Although I was on my way up to bed — I was going to be picked up at 6:00 AM the next morning by an aerial photography client — I asked the desk clerk to find alternative accommodations. I told her not to call me that night since I was going right to bed. I told her I’d check in at the desk in the morning to see what she’d found us and would talk to my guests about our options the next day.

At 5:00 AM the next morning (Saturday), I gathered up some clean clothes and prepared to walk down the block in the dark to the Travel Lodge, where the cold water Best Western had arranged for its guests to shower. (I can’t make this stuff up.) I stopped at the desk in my hotel, where I was shown a reservation for four rooms and two nights at the other Best Western in town, which I assumed still had hot water. I took the reservation sheet, put it in an envelope with a note, and slipped it under the door of one of my guests. I showered and dressed at the Travel Lodge, then walked back to the cold water Best Western. A little after 6 AM, my clients arrived and I went to work with them.

At around 11 AM, I finished with my clients and met with one of my guests. He told me that the hot water problem had been fixed. I called the other Best Western to cancel the reservations that had been made in my name.

And that’s when the shit started hitting the fan.

Apparently, the clerk at the cold water Best Western had used my credit card to reserve the rooms. The hotel has a 24-hour cancelation policy and refused to cancel the reservation.

In the meantime, we were all still checked in at the cold water Best Western (which now had hot water). My guests didn’t want to move. I didn’t either.

I need to make it clear to all that I never authorized any charges to my credit card for any hotel other than the one we were staying at.

I called several different parties at the Best Western hotel chain. After a lot of time on hold and call backs and excuses, I was told that my reservations would not be cancelled.

Today, I found four pending charges on my credit card statement for $157.73 each. There was also a $1 charge from Best Western.

Of course, I have no intention of paying these charges.

I’m absolutely appalled at the poor customer service of the Best Western chain. Specifically:

  • The failure of the Best Western Arizona Inn to promptly and professionally handle a failure in its hot water system.
  • The unauthorized use of my credit card by the clerk at the Best Western Arizona Inn to book hotel reservations that could not be cancelled.
  • The failure of the Best Western Lake Powell to cancel the hotel reservations made without authorization by another Best Western hotel employee.
  • The failure of the Best Western customer service department to cancel the hotel reservations made without authorization by a Best Western hotel employee.

Clearly, these people don’t care about their customers. Clearly, they have no understanding about customer service. Clearly, they have no problem fraudulently charging a customer’s credit card for reservations made without authorization.

I have called and written to the Best Western numerous times about this matter. They have not satisfactorily resolved it. Now I have to go through the bother of starting chargeback procedures with my credit card company. I may also need to press charges with the police against the Best Western employee who used my credit card without authorization, thus resulting in this nightmare of customer service failures.

Do you think I’ll stay at a Best Western again? Not likely. And I suggest that anyone reading this think about my customer service experience with this hotel chain before booking a room there.

Kids Ask a Lot of Questions

A quick note from a recent flight.

I recently flew a dad and his two kids on a 50-minute flight in the Wickenburg area. The kids were aged maybe 8 (the boy) and 10 (the girl). These are estimates. I didn’t ask and since I’m not a parent myself, I could be way off.

My helicopter has a voice-activated intercom system. That means that anything anyone says into their headset microphone can be heard by anyone else in the aircraft wearing a headset. (And yes, I do have an isolation switch I can use to “turn off” my passengers, but I rarely use it.) I narrated the flight, as I usually do, and pointed out interesting things.

Now I’ve flown kids before, but these kids were different. They asked a lot of questions. A lot. In fact, they pretty much never stopped asking questions.

I have no problem with this. It’s great to see kids who are interested in what’s going on around them. And it sure beats the kid who almost fell asleep on one of my Grand Canyon flights years ago.

Since I don’t have kids, however, it was a bit startling to me. It made me realize the limits of a young kid’s knowledge. For example, they repeatedly asked me to define words I’d used — irrigation and skeleton crew come to mind. They asked a lot of “why” and “how” questions. It was a real eye-opening experience for me. It was also a pleasure to be in the position where I could share some of my knowledge with them.

But the part I liked most was defining those terms I’d used without a second thought, bringing my vocabulary down to a level they’d understand and perhaps teaching them a few new words and concepts.

Five Years Blogging

How time flies.

Yesterday, while I was busy working — yes, I do work, too — I missed a major milestone in my writing life: my fifth anniversary as a blogger.

I latched on to blogging very early. I saw it for how it was originally intended, as a “Web log” or journal. I’d been wanting to keep a journal of my life and thoughts but could never stick with it. By blogging these things, I put it out there for feedback from others. With an audience, I felt a good reason to write these journal entries. I kept it up.

For five years.

I started blogging on October 15, 2003 with an offline blogging tool called iBlog. I’d use it to compose blog entries offline. When it was time to publish, iBlog would generate all the HTML necessary to create all of the pages for the blog. Publishing was time-consuming, especially as the blog grew in size. It was published to my .Mac disk space and co-existed with my Web site.

In 2004, when I went up to the Grand Canyon to fly helicopter tours, I found it necessary to start a new blog so I could blog from my laptop. This was a shortcoming of iBlog and it soon drove me nuts. Later the same year, I found a way to synchronize my two blogs back into one.

In December 2005, I finally saw the light and switched to WordPress. While I was brave enough to install it on my own Mac OS X Server — and even got it to work! — server problems convinced me to move it to a hosting service. It’s been there, running smoothly, ever since.

All this time, I’d been blogging about whatever I felt like. This included the kinds of “days in my life” posts you find here, as well as how-to articles I wrote for the readers of my computer books. But in November 2007, I decided to split off all the computer articles into their own blog-based site called Maria’s Guides. There was a lot of technical tasks required to pull that off without 404 errors, but I think I did a good job. Sadly, I’ve been neglecting Maria’s Guides a bit lately. I’d rather think — and write — about other things.

That brings us pretty close to today. My blog continues to chug along on the Internet, with me at the helm. I enjoy the ability to say what I want in a forum where others can read and comment on it. I enjoy the interaction with most (but admittedly not all) readers. I find it amazing when certain posts become extremely popular. For example, “Flying At Lake Powell” has been read nearly 19,000 times since it was written in April 2006 and “Cynical Humor” — which is based on content sent to me by a friend — was read more than 2,000 times just the other day. Other blog posts have resulted in a chain of comments which add valuable information to the original post. “The Helicopter Job Market,” which has been read over 18,000 times and has collected 75 comments so far, is a good example.

So yesterday, with no fanfare at all, the fifth anniversary of my first blog post came and went. If it weren’t for a recent reader comment that my blog is “as big as the Grand Canyon,” I would have forgotten this milestone completely. But the comment made me think.

It should be big. I’ve been at it for five years.

Don’t Panic!

Understanding how your investment transactions affect the market.

I really didn’t think a post like this was necessary, but after speaking with two different people about portfolio management in these troubled economic times, I realized that the average investor doesn’t have a clue about what a mutual fund is and how it works.

A Transfer is not Just a Transfer

Conversation One went like this:

Him: I’m thinking about transferring my Fidelity balances to bonds or t-bills.

Me: Don’t sell when the market is low.

Him: I’m not selling. Fidelity has bond and t-bill funds. I’m just transferring. When the market starts coming back, I’ll transfer back.

Conversation Two was remarkably similar:

Her: This week, I transfered all my mutual funds to a money market account.

Me: You sold your mutual funds? Now? When the market is in the toilet?

Her: No, I didn’t sell them. I just transferred them from one Putnam account to another. When the stock market starts going back up, I’ll just transfer the money back.

What followed was my attempt to explain that the “transfer” was, in reality, the sale of one mutual fund for the purchase of another. In both instances, my loved ones — yes, they are both related to me — were selling shares in a mostly stock-based mutual fund that had taken a beating with the Dow’s plunge and using the meager proceeds to invest in a different mutual fund based on less volatile (or more conservative) investment types with the same investment firm.

They didn’t see it this way because they mistakenly think that they are invested in the investment company: Fidelity, Putnam, Janus, Dreyfus, etc. They don’t understand that each mutual fund really consists of huge investments in regular publicly traded companies like GM, Washington Mutual, AIG, and countless other firms that have yet to hit the news. When they sell shares of a mutual fund that includes investments in, for example, GM, they are effectively selling GM stock. If everyone is selling, the price goes down.

Panic Feeding the Decline

Clearly, investors are the ones causing the stock market decline. Their panic sales are what’s driving down the prices, thus feeding the panic. The worse the prices get, the more people panic. Every one who cashes out — even by transferring stock based mutual funds to money market funds — is making the situation worse.

Take, for example, GM. On october 12, 2007, its shares were selling for $42.64 each. Although share prices declined slowly throughout the year, the panic of this past week really hit home. On Friday, GM shares closed at $4.89. You can see the decline in this chart:

GM.jpg

Let’s look at the reality of this. According to market valuation of GM stock, GM lost nearly 89% of its value in a year. What happened? Did a UFO hover over a few GM plants and suck them into the sky, leaving a gaping hole? Did GM inventory get spirited away by pixies in the middle of the night? Were all of GM’s cash reserves shredded for some kid’s hamster cage? Were GMs huge asset investments in equipment scrapped for their recycling value?

Of course not. GM’s company value is not just 11% of what it was this time last year. While the original stock price may have been inflated — I can’t say because I’m not an analyst and have not studied GM’s financial statements — there’s no way in hell that the company can be worth a tenth of what it was twelve months ago.

But do investors believe that GM’s total value has declined by 89% in a year? I don’t think so. I believe they’re just panicking, trying desperately to save their finances by cutting their losses. They’re running — screaming that the sky is falling — away from stocks and the declining mutual funds that are based upon their values. As a result, they’re causing much of the mayhem.

More About Mutual Funds

My personal portfolio has declined in value by at least 40% in the past year. I can’t tell you the exact amount. I haven’t looked since Monday. I’m afraid to.

My portfolio includes my retirement funds. And yes, most of them are mutual funds. Most of them were doing very well — one was posting consistent gains of 25% a year and had doubled in value in five years. Like most Americans, I’m a lazy investor. Why do all my homework to handpick investments and then watch them from day to day when an investment firm has experts who can do that for me?

But at least I have an idea of what’s in my mutual funds. Fund names often have a clue. For example an S&P 500 fund is directly tied to the securities that make up the S&P 500. If the S&P 500 goes down 5 points, so does my fund. Pretty simple, right? Another fund name might include the words “Small Market Cap.” That fund is invested in stocks of small market capitalization companies.

Let’s say, for example, that Maria’s Big Cap Fund includes investments in 10 stocks named A – J. (In reality, it would likely include investments in far more securities, but this is a simple example.) Let’s also say that 1 share of Maria’s Big Cap Fund consists of one share each of companies A – J. When I sell a share of Maria’s Big Cap Fund, I’m selling 10 shares of stock — one each in companies A – J. If I have 500 shares of Maria’s Big Cap Fund and I “transfer” my investment to Maria’s Great Money Market Fund, I’m really selling 500 shares each of companies A – J and buying the equivalent dollar value investment in a money market.

Now say that Maria’s Big Cap Fund is really popular and there are 50,000,000 shares of it held with investors. As those investors panic and “transfer” or sell their shares in Maria’s Big Cap Fund, they’re really selling lots and lots of stock. As stock is unloaded in bulk, its value decreases. As value decreases, its price goes down.

This is part of what’s making the stock market so screwed up right now.

No Loss Until Sold

But what’s worse is that many investors are unnecessarily taking losses on their investments. They bought at one price and, as prices drop, they may be selling at a lower (or much lower) price. That’s a loss.

But if they held onto their investments and didn’t sell (or “transfer”), they wouldn’t have a loss — at least not yet. Sure, it would look horrible on their account statements or in Quicken or on whatever online service they might use to track investment value. But until the stock is sold, there is no loss.

I need to say that again, in some different words for those who might not have understood the previous words:

If you do not sell your stock, you do not lose any money.

You can argue this all day long but you will not win. A loss is only on paper until the sale is made. Paper losses aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on. (Pun intended.)

Remember “Black Monday” in 1987? At the time, it was the largest one-day percentage decline in stock market history. Remember when the dot-com bubble burst? Wikipedia even has an exact date for it: March 10, 2000. How about the market right after September 11, 2001? These are just three examples of disaster in the stock market.

But guess what? In each case, the market rebounded. Sure, a bunch of companies were shaken out of existence — primarily after about 50% of the dot-com startups were revealed to be based on ideas that couldn’t generate enough revenue to warrant their market values. But the market that emerged after these disasters was stronger. Values for most “good investments” came back.

I’ve been actively investing in the stock market, through both individual stock purchases via an online brokerage firm and mutual funds. As I mentioned earlier, my entire retirement portfolio is in a variety of diversified mutual funds. I survived as an investor through the dot-com bubble burst — my investments recovered their value within two years. And I fully expect to survive as an investor from the current market madness.

Why? Because I’m not going to sell.

I’m lucky, in a way. Although I’m not a kid, I’m still 15 years away from minimum retirement age. I have time to let my portfolio recover.

Not everyone is that lucky. Some people are just getting ready to retire. Other people — like my mm and stepdad — are already retired and tapping into that investment nest egg to meet their financial needs every day. These people are pretty much screwed — unless the stock market rebounds in a hurry.

And the stock market simply won’t rebound if everyone panics and keeps selling.